Intrepid Cummins delves into the Ahmedabad playbook

In Gujarat's blazing heat three years ago, the great tactical triumph of the Pat Cummins era was born when Australia's intrepid captain defied the 2023 World Cup's conventional logic and invited his opponents to bat. 

When all is said and done in Cape Town on Saturday, Cummins will hope history looks back as fondly on his decision to do likewise at the outset of the deciding Test of one of the great series of recent times. 

In the milder Western Cape spring, Cummins raised eyebrows when he identified morning moisture lurking beneath the Newlands' turf as his reason for bowling despite having left out Scott Boland, his most effective new-ball seamer from the previous Test.

Two-and-a-half hours later, it was apparent the extra bounce Australia's brains trust had anticipated as helping their towering pace trio was also non-existent. By lunch, South Africa swanned to 0-140 and comparisons to Ricky Ponting's infamous 2005 Ashes decision to bowl at Edgbaston without Glenn McGrath were at the ready. 

That neat narrative has since been scrambled by Mitchell Starc taking almost half the hosts' wickets in a heroic third-Test effort and Australia posting a formidable first-innings tally without their middle-order talisman, Steve Smith. 

The placid conditions that confounded Cummins and his fellow bowlers on that opening morning, and which Ryan Rickelton and Wiaan Mulder enjoyed in their turgid day-four fightback, may now be a godsend for Australia's last-day pursuit.  

"We thought that there might have been a little bit more in it on day one," said assistant coach James Franklin, his grin as he emphasised "a little bit" suggesting he might really have meant "a lot".

"None for 140 at lunch – it was a little bit of a 'take your breath' moment. But we reassessed and through the second, third session on day one, we shifted our tactics a bit and we obviously picked up 10 wickets through the rest of that day. 

"I think the rest of this game has probably played out a little bit more traditionally … days two and three have been pretty good to bat. Today's been pretty good to bat, albeit there's been a little bit of rough outside the right hander's eye line. 

"So day five, let's see what we get."

Outside of the 'table cloth' of cloud that's been tipped to move down from Cape Town's stunning backdrop during the fifth-day climax, that rough created by Starc and fellow left-arm quick Marco Jansen's enormous hooves looms as the greatest batting danger for Australia.

Cummins' counterpart Temba Bavuma had underestimated it when a late day-three Lyon off-break caught the edge of the churned-up part of the wicket, violently ripping past his nonchalant waft and into his stumps. 

But from a further 30 Lyon overs on day four, the veteran's only footmark-induced joy was when Simon Harmer of all people ignored its potential for volatility and was bowled. 

It marked Lyon's only breakthrough of the day. With Cummins having denied him the chance to bowl last on this pitch, Australia will be vindicated if his opposite number in Harmer is equally unsuccessful.

Indeed, Lyon's lack of penetration necessitated Cummins to delve back into the Ahmedabad playbook on Friday. 

As much as Travis Head and Marnus Labuschagne got their flowers for their match-winning union that dimmed 100,000 blue-clad fans in that World Cup final, Australia's pinch on India's middle-order proved as decisive; Cummins cycled through seven bowlers in 10 overs during a terminally slow Virat Kohli-KL Rahul partnership.

In Cape Town, Cummins' use of five bowlers in as many overs late on day three immediately preceded Starc's violent bouncer that ended Marques Ackerman's early onslaught. Lyon's snorter to Bavuma capped a final session that saw 12 bowling changes. 

Having pulled rabbits out of his Baggy Green, Cummins' return to the ploy as Rickelton and Mulder proved immovable more closely resembled a tired magician searching for a trick the kids hadn’t yet clocked. 

After the second new ball proved no more threatening than the first, Cummins this time used seven bowlers in eight overs before tea with part-timers Cooper Connnolly, Marnus Labuschagne, Matthew Renshaw and Travis Head all thrown the ball amid the whip-round.

"It's a bit frustrating sometimes because you're not sure what the plan is," Rickelton said of Cummins' tactic. "But on the flip side, you get an opportunity to score. If Cooper (Connolly) comes on for an over, he could miss his length (but has) no real time to settle in.

"When the wicket's placid, (Cummins) does really well in trying to change things up and never let the batters get comfortable with guys settling in for four or five overs.

"But in the same breath, it gives you opportunities to score if you've got Marnus trying to throw it into the rough and then Renshaw and then back to Lyon. What we did well today was emphasise the point that you can't relax on any of them.

"There's enough in the wicket for all of them to be effective, and luckily there were times or pockets where we could score off them before they settled back into the more traditional stuff."

If history is any guide, Cummins should yet have more to say in this Test.

The two relevant fourth-innings blueprints of his captaincy tenure have come in Christchurch in 2024 (when Australia chased 279 seven wickets down) and at Edgbaston (when they reeled in 281 eight down).

And not since Cummins' debut in 2011 when the Aussies reached 310 against South Africa at the Wanderers have they made as many as the 288 they now need to remain top of the World Test Championship standings.

The man who hit the winning runs in all three of those Tests? Cummins, of course.

Qantas tour of South Africa 2026

All matches to be broadcast exclusively in Australia on Kayo and Fox Cricket

First Test: Australia won by 214 runs

Second Test: South Africa won by an innings and 31 runs

Third Test: October 27-31, Newlands, Cape Town, 7:30pm AEDT (10:30am local)

South Africa Test squad: Temba Bavuma (c), Marques Ackerman, David Bedingham, Corbin Bosch, Gerald Coetzee, Simon Harmer, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Wiaan Mulder, Senuran Muthusamy, Dane Paterson, Kagiso Rabada, Ryan Rickelton, Tristan Stubbs, Kyle Verreynne

Australia Test squad: Pat Cummins (c), Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Cooper Connolly, Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Matthew Kuhnemann, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Michael Neser, Matthew Renshaw, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Beau Webster